SuperDuper Tennis!: WTA Nordic Light Open , Stockholm 2008

	Comparative.Excel.Program				Potential
	Final Winner	1st Set	2nd Set	3nd Set	SETS
		L1 >>	-4,7
			L1W2 >>	-2,8
		W1 >>	14,2
Srebotnik Katarina	38,3	27,3	W1L1 >>	-1,3	2	2

Dushevina Vera	-11,1	-9,2	L1W2 >>	x	0	0
		L1 >>	-12,3
			W1L1 >>	x
		W1 >>	-5,6

	Comparative.Excel.Program				Potential
	Final Winner	1st Set	2nd Set	3nd Set	SETS
		L1 >>	1,0
			L1W2 >>	0,2
		W1 >>	6,4
Radwanska Agnieszka	29,0	39,6	W1L1 >>	1,9	2	0

Wozniacki Caroline	37,8	35,1	L1W2 >>	x	0	2
		L1 >>	-7,7
			W1L1 >>	x
		W1 >>	20,9

Srebotnik to win by 2-0 @ 2,20 (Bet365) >> 7/10
Radwanska to win by 2-0 @ 2,20 (Bet365) >> 3/10

9 comments:

Anonymous said...: Hi Christos,

Thanks for the great website. It really helps me to pick winners.

I really appreciate the excel tables. But today you used a different format. And i must admit it was more difficult to 'read'. Would you be so nice to use the other one or explain how to read it?

Also have some questions on which stats you use as a input, setscores for example? Would be nice to read something about your ideas behind your system.

And also i cant read the graphs. What does it mean exactly? And is there a correlation with the match ratings on tennisinsight.com?

Again, it would be nice to read something about the logic behind.

If you wont do it online, you can email me as well: arjaneinstein@hotmail.com.

Thanks in advance.

Ciao, Arjan; August 2, 2008 at 1:07 PM
SuperDuper said...: First of all, thank you for your nice comments Arjan.

CEP is not 100% ready yet!!! This means that you will see many changes (new versions) in the future in order to be more and more efficient! For instance, very soon you will see player's CEP dynamics for TIE BREAKS!

The previous tables showed the general dynamic of each set for each player! But, this is not so accurate because players tend to change their motivation or even their confidence changes when -for instance- lose the 1st set. There are others when lose the 1st set increase their performance in 2nd and so on...

So, I was convinced that its better to have distinguish the dynamics for every case scenario.

For your better reading of new tables please translate the symbols like that:

W1: Player's dynamic in 2nd set when he/she wins the 1 set

L1: Player's dynamic in 2nd set when he/she loses the 1st set

W1L2: Player's dynamic in 3rd set when he/she wins the 1st set and loses the 2nd set

L1W2: Player's dynamic in 3rd set when he/she loses the 1st set and wins the 2nd set

To give you an example, check out today's Wozniacki's Table. She has a great dynamic for Final Winner but when she loses the 1st set then she collapses in the 2nd! In reverse, when she wins the 1st set she looks unbeatable in 2nd set! If it is given the general dynamics for her then you could see that she increases her general dynamic in 2nd set, but this is wrong in case that she may lose the 1st set. I hope to describe you the important difference of the new tables. BUT, NEW TABLES WILL BE SHOWED UP WHEN I HAD RESULTS FOR BOTH PLAYERS!!! If not, I will give the old ones.

As about the details that you asked for the CEP program, very soon I will have a general description in my blog.

Thank you again for your communication. Hope to discuss more in the future.

Cheers!; August 2, 2008 at 2:16 PM
SuperDuper said...: I forgot to say about graphs.

Form Contrast graphs compares the forms of players from the beginning of the year! So, with a quick look you can see which one is having better playing year.

This includes all the matches that everyone have gave and for all the surfaces that they have played. In the future, I will have Contrast Form graphs for specific surfaces!

Also, it gives to reader a picture of how stable is the player' performance. For instance, if you check out Nadal's Form graph you will see an almost upward straight line. Then compare it with Verdasco's Form graph. You should realize my point.

Everything that you see in my blog, it has no relation with tennisinsight. Given the opportunity, I have to congratulate the nice and useful job that tennisinsight is doing!!!

By the way, where are you from?

Cheers again! ;); August 2, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Chris...anything from the men's matches that we could bet?...so the matches are to tight to decide a winner or another bet on them?...By the way...i expect the explications of all the graphics and the new version of the program....Have a nice day my friend...; August 2, 2008 at 4:09 PM
SuperDuper said...: Hello punisher!

Answers you will find if you read the above comments of this post!

In 5' I'll have men's CEP results...

cheers my friend!; August 2, 2008 at 4:12 PM
Anonymous said...: I've read them...but i was refering about the general description that you will post soon on your blog....Cheers mate; August 2, 2008 at 5:39 PM
SuperDuper said...: Oh ok...

Right now I'm suppose to be in vacations. I'm in Hydra (Hellenic island) with my wife and as you realize I have no much time.

I think that this will be materialized in September.

;); August 2, 2008 at 5:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Hi Christos,

Thanks for your quick reply. Hope you are enjoying your holiday.

I get your point on motivation etc. But on your earlier tables i developed a very interesting betting method. If a player had a higher dynamics for all 3 sets, take the bet and you will win. I followed this strategy from the beginning and its very lucrative.

On basis of those dynamics your set predictions were pretty logic. If 2 sets were pretty onesided and one was so so, the final prediction was 2-0 or 2-1. Easy logic, easy understanding.

Is it possible to get the earlier tables on the side as well? I would be very thankfull for that.

With your new way its more difficult to understand the prediction. For example Djoko vs Murray is difficult to read. Final winner indicates Nadal as a winner and you are saying 1-2 or 2-1. But lets read through the tabel together. Djoko wins first set. According to your model Djoko will probably win the second as well. So first prediction is 2-0 for Djoko.
If nadal wins the first, he will probably also win the second. 2-0 for Nadal.
If this doesnt happen and we go into third set, the winner of the first set will win. Resulting in 2-1.
So imo 2-0 for djoko or 2-0 nadal are the most possible outcomes.

But also Karlovic beating Murray with 2-0 or 2-1? I get the 2-0 if karlo wins first set, but what about the 2-1?

Can you explain us the logic (and if its there) the correlation between the set betting, the outcomers per set and the winner dynamics? Would be nice to discuss it.

The graphs are interesting to see, but can you explain something more on the y-ax. For example Soderling v Kohlschreiber. Soderlings form increases from 0 to 140. Kohlis form from 0 to 40. What does the difference mean?

Thanks in advance for your reply. And i really hope you can show us the original tables as well, otherwise one of my winning strategies has been gone.

Ciao Arjan.

Ps i live in Holland.
Ps2 enjoy your holiday!; August 2, 2008 at 9:31 PM
SuperDuper said...: Hi Arjan and sorry about my belated response.

I'm having some problems with my internet connection and I lost the text that I wrote to you.

I have added old tables as well because of your request.

Answers for your questions (and thank you for that) will be answered very soon because now I'm in vacation and I haven't such a time. Anyway, in September I will have a general description of CEP.

I need to remind you that CEP is in trial period and so there many things that have to change or to correct. The scope is CEP to become one of the most powerful and reliable tool of tennis betting.

Thank you for your wishes!

cheers; August 3, 2008 at 1:59 PM

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